The Media Line — Keren Setton — January 5, 2025
Israel intensifies its war on Hamas in Gaza, targeting terrorists while negotiating a ceasefire and hostage releases. With heavy losses on both sides, the conflict remains unresolved, and Gaza's future hangs in uncertainty
Israel continued to pound Gaza over the weekend, as Palestinians reported tens of people killed in the ongoing war between the Hamas terrorist organization and the Jewish state.
The Israeli military announced it had carried out airstrikes against over 100 targets, including Hamas terrorists and rocket launching sites.
For over a year, Israel has staged a massive military operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Its stated goals are to remove Hamas as a governing power in the territory and release all the hostages. In what appears to be an intensification of the fighting and amid the war, Hamas and Israel are engaged in indirect talks aimed at reaching a ceasefire and releasing at least some of the 100 Israeli hostages still being held by Hamas since the beginning of the war.
Thousands of Israelis rallied on Saturday evening to protest the government and pressure it to reach a deal with Hamas.
Several weeks ago, there was initial optimism that a deal was imminent. Now, the talks mediated by the US, Egypt, and Qatar seem to be at yet another impasse.
Israel's continued military presence in the Gaza Strip and the refusal by the current government to withdraw from the territory, a pre-condition by Hamas for any deal, has so far blocked a ceasefire from being reached.
The army is not only present in Gaza, but it also continues to fight at varying levels of intensity. On Friday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) issued evacuation warnings for areas in the center of the Gaza Strip ahead of an operation there. The IDF also continued to operate in the north of the territory.
The area consists of structures overlooking Israeli territory and serves as a central terror hub containing anti-tank firing positions, booby traps, shafts, numerous explosives, and launch sites for targeting Israeli territory, read a statement by the army.
In addition, the army continues to control the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors in southern and central Gaza, respectively, aimed at blocking Hamas from being able to re-arm and re-position itself.
Adopting a policy of incursions rather than operating in the whole of Gaza continuously, the army has found itself often re-entering areas it has already operated in several times.
This policy of mowing the grass, coined by Prof. Efraim Inbar and Dr. Eitan Shamir, has entangled Israel in its longest war ever. It refers to a strategy of pinpointed military operations limited in time to quell a temporary threat, barring a more permanent political solution.
But, according to Shamir, director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar Ilan University, Hamas military abilities cannot be defeated as quickly as critics of the IDF strategy would like to believe.
Hamas had over twenty years to accumulate a massive amount of firepower, dispersing it in many areas, including in its widespread underground tunnel network. Combined with other terrorist organizations, such as the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. It had approximately 30,000 fighters. This could take two to three years to get rid of.
Israeli forces are continuing to find weapons depots to encounter Hamas terrorists and tunnels, in a testament to the continuance of Hamas presence in the territory.
There is an estimated 40% of the tunnels still remaining, hundreds of kilometers of tunnels the Israeli intelligence was not aware of, said Yoni Ben Menachem, an expert of Middle Eastern affairs from Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told The Media Line. There are still very long tunnels that Israel has yet to have located, some of them with hostages inside. This requires a very big operation and a massive amount of explosives that Israel currently does not possess.
Hamas stunned Israel on October 7, 2023, when it attacked the south of the country in a rampage that killed approximately 1200 Israelis and wounded thousands more. It also took approximately 250 people hostage, 100 still in captivity. In response, Israel launched a massive war against Hamas. According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed since and over 107000 wounded. 390 Israeli soldiers have been killed in the ground invasion of Gaza.
The war quickly developed into a regional, multi-front confrontation. The Lebanese Hezbollah organization and the Houthi rebels in Yemen began launching attacks against Israel, forcing it to respond and divert critical resources to other fronts. A fragile and temporary ceasefire with Hezbollah has been in place for a month now. Should it last, Israeli troops are expected to withdraw from southern Lebanon at the end of January.
Israel does not have enough forces at this point to subdue Hamas both militarily and in its ability to govern Gaza, Ben Menachem said. In order to do that, Israel needs to occupy the entire Gaza Strip and announce it is enforcing temporary military administration.
According to Ben Menachem, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government is waiting for major developments before progressing in that direction.
One is the fate of the ceasefire and hostage deal talks, and the other is the upcoming change in the US administration, with President Joe Biden's departure and Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20th. Netanyahu hopes Trump, who has favored his policies during his previous term, will pose less of an impediment.
The Israeli government has so far avoided discussing its plans for Gaza after the war because of the opposition from the Biden administration to an Israeli military rule there, Ben Menachem said.
Netanyahu has not ruled out a military rule in Gaza, although he has shot down calls from within his coalition to re-settle Gaza with Jewish settlements. In addition to setting Hamas removal from power as one of the war goals, the Israeli premier has also voiced opposition to the return of the Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza, deeming it a supporter of terrorism.
The alternative to incursions is military rule, which will enable complete control of Gaza. It will prevent, not completely, Hamas's ability to rise up. But it will require a lot of resources because it is essentially occupying Gaza.