The release of Israeli hostages and the return of Palestinians to their Gaza homeshas largely obscured the question of whether the war will now resume.

US NEWSTovah LazaroffFeb. 20, 2025

JERUSALEMA temporary truce inGazaexpires at the start of March, and formal negotiations to extend it have yet to take place.

The riveting release of long-held Israeli hostages and the return of Palestinians to their mostly destroyed Gaza homes has largely obscured the critical question of whether the war that began on Oct. 7, 2023, and which took a promising step toward resolution on Jan. 19, will now resume.

Heres a look at the fragile state of play in the Middle East conflict, including what's at stake and what's next in negotiations for what was slated to be a ceasefire implemented over several phases in coming months.

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What's Trump's Plan for Gaza?

Why It Matters

At stake is a war that has reduced large swaths of Gaza to rubble and which has cost more than 48,000 Palestinian lives out of the over 2 million residents of the enclave, according to The Associated Press, citing Palestinian health officials whom, the news agency notes, do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

The lives oftwo dozen additional hostagesout of the roughly 59 that would still be held in Gaza after Phase 1 ends including Israeli-U.S. citizen Edan Alexander, 21 are also at risk. They are held in what are believed to be unsustainable conditions and might not survive another protracted negotiation process.

The resumption of the Gaza war raises the risk of reigniting associated battlefronts against Israel by Iran and its proxies, such as the Houthis in Yemen, who halted their missile and drone strikes against Israel once the ceasefire was in place.

Why Could the Ceasefire Expire?

Former President Joe Biden unveiled a broad framework for a three-phase Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal on May 31, which the United Nations Security Council endorsed in June. It took seven months, however, for mediator countries Qatar and Egypt with the help of the United States to secure an agreement on just Phase 1 of the deal, under the terms of which 33 Israeli hostages we're to be released, leaving the return of the remaining captives for Phase 2. They are the last remaining captives out of the 251 seized during the Hamas-led Oct. 7 invasion of Israel that sparked the war. During that attack, some 1,200 people in southern Israel we're killed.

Under the terms of the deal, negotiations for Phase 2 we're slated to begin 16 days after the start of Phase 1, which fell around Feb. 4. Yet the date for the talks has not been set. Israel's security cabinet voted only this week to engage. Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Saar and U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff have independently told journalists that Phase 2 talks would be held.

Negotiators now have less than two weeks to secure an agreement on Phase 2 or create a mechanism to extend the ceasefire without a Phase 2 agreement. If no action is taken, it is likely that the Israel Defense Forces will resume battling Hamas in Gaza.

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What Was in Phase 1 of the Agreement?

In exchange for the staggered release of 33 Israeli hostages over six weeks, hostilities ceased. The IDF withdrew from large parts of Gaza, increased the entry of humanitarian aid, and Israel freed Palestinian security detainees in its jails or prisoners found guilty of terror attacks in which civilians we're killed.

To date, 19 live Israeli captives have been freed, with six more live hostages expected to be returned to Israel on Saturday. An additional five Thai workers held by Hamas we're also freed in this period.

Eight hostages included in the first phase of the deal are dead. The remains of four of them we're slated to be returned to Israel on Thursday and the other four to be given back next week. (After Thursday's exchange, Israeli officials said the remains of hostage Shiri Bibas a 32-year-old mother whom Hamas said it had returned along with the remains of her two young childrenwere notamong the bodies given back by the group. Hamas said itwould investigate the issue.)

Among the live captives to be returned Saturday are two Israeli men held by Palestinians in Gaza for the last decade.

What Is in Phase 2 and Phase 3 of the Ceasefire?

Phase 2 is expected to include the release of all the remaining live hostages, of which itsbelieved there would be 24. The release is based on the formula that existed in Phase 1 but does not have to be staggered, and there is a growing pressure among the Israeli public for Phase 2 to allow for all the hostages to be freed at once with Hamas also indicating an interest in that as well. President Donald Trump has already spoken of wanting all the hostages freed in one shot, even giving an ultimatum to Hamas to do so during Phase 1, though he left enforcement of that up to Israel, which decided to hold to the original terms of the Phase 1 deal.

Most significantly, Phase 2 is also supposed to include a permanent end to the war and a complete IDF withdrawal from Gaza, a step that includes what has been an intractable sticking point between Israel and Hamas.

Israel has insisted that the war can only end once Hamas is completely destroyed, stressing that it can not be allowed to govern, control or remain in Gaza. It has warned against the adoption of any model in which Hamas could operate as a non-state actor in Gaza in a style akin to the way the non-state actor Hezbollah coexists with the Lebanese government and army. Hamas, in turn, has insisted that it must be allowed to remain in control of Gaza and that Israel must leave.

Phase 3 would include a five-year plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, a step that a report by the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations indicated this week could cost as much as $53 billion. Such a massive reconstruction project, however, could only happen in a situation where it was certain that the war would not be resumed.

War in Israel and Gaza

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Trump Already Changed the Three-Phase Deal

Trump administration officials were involved in finalizing Phase 1, prior to Trumps inauguration, and have even taken credit for it. Biden had envisioned that the deal would eventually lead to Palestinian governance of Gaza without Hamas, with that territory earmarked for inclusion in the future boundaries of a Palestinian state. He had hoped to link a pathway for that statehood with a broader regional deal with Saudi Arabia. It was a vision that put him at odds with Israel, which has opposed the creation of a Palestinian state, particularly in Gaza.

Trump changed the entire debate about Phases 2 and 3 of the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal the first week of February when he announced from the White House podium that the U.S. wants to control Gaza and relocate the 2 million Palestinians living there to other countries. It was a statement that placed Washington at the heart of the debate on Gaza's future. It clarified that the Trump administration does not envision a Palestinian state in Gaza, even without Hamas. His words we're met with opposition from Palestinians, the Arab world and the international community, some of whom have gone so far as to liken the move to ethnic cleansing.

Since then, however, Egypt, Jordan and other Arab states such as Saudi Arabia have scrambled to come up with alternative plans for Gaza that would allow the Palestinians to remain. Trump is simultaneously seeking to include Israel in a normalization deal with Saudi Arabia, which would also impact the future of Gaza.

How Much Can Happen in Two Weeks?

Phase 2 talks would now happen within the context of Trumps vision for the Middle East, one that could provide Hamas with a ladder by which to extricate itself from Gaza or force it to harden its position. Even if there is a short extension of the ceasefire, the Trump administration has little time to come up with an interim or permanent plan to prevent the resumption of the war, after such a move eluded the Biden administration for 15 months.