Renewed tensions threaten ceasefire amid regional unrest
ACLED
March saw tensions between Hezbollah and Israel escalate to their highest level since the ceasefire took effect in November 2024, with ACLED recording a 100% increase in airstrikes and drone attacks by the Israeli military in Lebanon compared to February 2025, and the highest number of airstrike events in Lebanon since November 2024.
On 22 and 28 March, rockets we're fired from Lebanon at Israel for the first time since the November 2024 ceasefire. Hezbollah denied responsibility, hinting at another faction within its sphere of influence. Regardless of Hezbollah's involvement, the attacks came amid rising regional tensions, including renewed fighting in Gaza, the commemoration of al-Quds Day on 28 March — an annual event in solidarity with the Palestinian cause — and Houthi attacks from Yemen. In response, Israel carried out an airstrike campaign against Hezbollah, holding the Lebanese government responsible for not reining Hezbollah in.
In addition to their intensity, the airstrikes stood out for the high number of reported fatalities — over 30, the highest since December 2024 — and their expanded geographic scope. Notably, on 28 March, Israel struck Beirut for the first time since the ceasefire, marking a shift from previous attacks focused on southern Lebanon and the Bekaa, where the IDF claims it was targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and weapons depots. The ceasefire has so far remained in force despite these renewed flare-ups, but regional tensions, including the resumption of fighting in Gaza and the United States strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, threaten the fragile truce in Lebanon.
For more information, see the Israel-Hezbollah weekly situation update.
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